The Situation
A Record Premiere Backed by a Giant Campaign
The Rings of Power marketing campaign in 2022 supported Amazon Prime Video’s biggest series launch to date. The Lord of the Rings: The Rings of Power premiered on September 2, 2022, with a Super Bowl trailer and a press rollout built like a film release. It also raised the question every marketer faces after a big launch: did the spend create lasting customers, or only a loud first week?
The Problem
Why Do Big Premieres Hide Retention Problems?
A premiere number counts who showed up. It does not count who stayed. Completion rate is the share of people who start a season and watch it to the end. It works like a repeat rate for a brand, and the people who drop out are your churn.
Amazon reportedly paid $250 million for the Tolkien rights and about $465 million to produce season one, a combined $715 million, according to the Wall Street Journal. Marketing came on top of that. Marketing experts estimated the one-minute Super Bowl trailer slot alone at about $13 million, as Time reported. A verified marketing total was not available when we wrote this, so we do not quote one. Campaigns at this scale are built around reach, and reach was the number Amazon announced first.
- The root problem: public success claims centered on premiere viewers, not on how many people finished.
- The cost: every dollar that buys a first view but not a second one raises your real customer acquisition cost (CAC), because the lost customers have to be replaced.
Completion data shows that viewers left. It does not show why they left. Content quality, competition and viewing habits could all play a part, and marketing cannot answer that alone.
Our Approach
How Kaaf Media Network Would Build a Retention-First Campaign
We would set the retention target before the media plan, then release budget only as retention data comes in. Kaaf Media Network did not work on this campaign. This is how we would approach any launch where a brand pays for attention.
- Define what “retained” means for the business, such as a second purchase, a second session or a renewal.
- Report reach and retention separately, and track each cohort (a group of customers who first bought in the same week) at day 1, day 7 and day 30.
- Find the exact step where customers drop off, then fix that step before adding spend.
- Release budget in stages, and only when the repeat rate holds at the previous stage.
- Run re-engagement campaigns that match the drop-off point for customers who lapsed.
The hard part is timing. Ad platforms report results in days. Retention shows up in weeks, and it often sits in the product or sales team’s data, not the marketing dashboard. Teams also disagree on what counts as retained. Expect that argument in week one, and settle it in writing before any spend goes live. If the data shows the product is the weak point, more ad spend will not fix it, and we would tell the client to pause scaling.
Our data and analytics team builds this reporting before the first ad goes live, and our lifecycle marketing and email campaigns handle the re-engagement step.
| Service | Purpose |
|---|---|
| Retention target setup | Define what “retained” means before launch |
| Cohort reporting | Track return rates at day 1, 7 and 30 |
| Drop-off analysis | Find the step where customers stop |
| Stage-gated budgeting | Release spend only when retention holds |
| Re-engagement campaigns | Win back customers who lapsed |
The Result
What Did the Numbers Show After the Premiere?
Amazon’s reach number set a record. Its retention number did not match. Amazon said the first two episodes drew more than 25 million viewers worldwide in their first 24 hours, the biggest premiere in Prime Video history. Amazon did not say how much of an episode counts as a view, and no baseline was given to compare against.
The completion data told a different story. The Hollywood Reporter found that 37% of US viewers who started season one finished all eight episodes, and 45% did so outside the US, as Fortune reported. The coverage we reviewed did not state the measurement window, so treat these as a snapshot, not a trend. About a month after launch, Amazon Studios head Jennifer Salke told Variety the show was approaching 100 million viewers.
A 50 percent completion rate would be a solid but not spectacular result.
That is how unnamed insiders described the benchmark to The Hollywood Reporter. Even the 45% international rate fell short of it. We found no public figure linking the show to Prime sign-ups or retention, so the return on the campaign cannot be measured from outside Amazon.
For a brand, the lesson is practical. Reach tells you the ad earned attention. Retention tells you whether the business earned the customer. Judge a launch on both, and when budgets are tight, look at the second one first.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is a completion rate and why does it matter for marketing?
Completion rate is the share of people who start something and finish it. For a show, it means finishing the season. For a brand, it works like a repeat purchase rate. It matters because reach only shows who showed up, while completion shows whether the product held their attention. Kaaf Media Network treats it as the first retention number to track after any launch.
Did The Rings of Power marketing campaign fail?
Not on reach. Amazon reported more than 25 million viewers in the first 24 hours, its biggest Prime Video premiere. But The Hollywood Reporter found only 37% of US viewers finished season one. The data shows a gap between starting and finishing. It does not prove whether marketing, content or competition caused it, so the fair verdict is that reach worked and retention fell short of the 50% benchmark.
How much did Amazon spend on Rings of Power marketing?
No verified marketing total is public. The $250 million figure often linked to this campaign is the reported rights fee, paid in 2017, not marketing. The Wall Street Journal put rights plus season one production at about $715 million. Time reported that the one-minute Super Bowl slot cost an estimated $13 million, according to marketing experts.
How can a brand tell if its ad spend is creating repeat customers?
Track cohorts. Group customers by the week they first bought, then measure how many return at day 7, day 30 and day 90. If each new cohort returns less often than the last, your spend is buying one-time buyers. Compare repeat purchase rate against acquisition cost, not just ad platform conversions. Kaaf Media Network builds this cohort reporting before campaigns launch.
Should a brand cut ad spend when retention is low?
Pause scaling, not learning. First find where customers drop off, since weak retention can come from the product, onboarding, pricing or the wrong audience. Fix that step before raising budget. Our guide on finding the largest leak in a retail funnel shows the method. Kaaf Media Network runs this drop-off analysis first, then decides whether to cut, hold or reshape spend.
Quick Recommendations for Brands Running Big Launches
These steps protect a launch from the gap Amazon’s numbers show between reach and finish.
- Put launch-week reach and day-30 repeat rate on the same dashboard. Amazon’s 25 million and 37% figures only make sense side by side.
- Define “retained” in writing before launch. Amazon’s 25 million figure came without a definition of a view, which made it hard to judge.
- Pick your own benchmark upfront. Insiders called 50% completion solid, and Amazon’s reported 37% in the US missed it.
- Split the cause before changing spend. Completion data shows who left, not why, so check product, onboarding and audience first.
- Stage your budget against retention. A large amount locked in before launch, like the reported $715 million for rights and production, leaves no room to react.
Reach gets people to the door, but retention keeps the business open. If your ad spend is rising while your repeat rate stays flat, Kaaf Media Network can help you find where customers drop off. You can read more stories like this in our success stories.
